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Millennials are a generation of people born between the years 1981 and 1996. They are currently between the ages of 26 and 41. As of 2019, there are approximately 71.2 Million Millennials in the United States, making up 22% of the population, serving as the largest generation in the U.S. to date. As a Millennial, I was privileged to become a homeowner in September 2020. All-time-low interest rates coupled with Covid-19 mandates and quarantines made it difficult to find a home within my preferred county that aligned with my budget. As a result, I settled on a home two hours away from my work office and one to two hours away from my loved ones and the areas I have grown to love.
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Though I was able to purchase a home in a highly unpredictable market, it was not easy at all. In our society, it has become a common trope that Millennials are unable to afford homes due to factors including rapid increases in home value, record inflation rates, and crippling student loan debt. But is there any merit to this assumption or is it a spiraling joke?
Millennial Income
The first step in answering this question is determining the income of the Millennial generation. According to the most recent U.S. Census, Millennial households made a median of $71,566 in 2020. When adjusting for inflation, this number resembles earnings of similarly aged Generation X households about 15 to 20 years in the past. Since relative income has largely stayed the same while home prices have increased, this first piece of information supports the argument that purchasing homes will be more difficult for Millennials. However, understanding how much home values have increased is also important in validating the theory.
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Home Value in the United States Today
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the average sale price of houses in the United States increased from $205,000 in January 2000 to $457,000 in Jan of 2021. In 21 years, that’s an over $250,000 increase in prices. Though surprising, those numbers are not indicative of the current situation in 2022. Today, Zillow reports that the average cost of a home is $349,000 which is $100,000 less than the previous year. Those are some interesting numbers. It took 20 years to increase $250,000 in value, but one year to decrease $100,000 in value. The only other time in recent history such a large change occurred was in 2008, and it was caused by the recession. So what influenced the latest massive drop in home prices?
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Interest Rates
The main factor that influenced the rise and drop in home prices was historically low interest rates. From 2019 to 2021, interest rates averaged 3.33%, which were the lowest interest rates ever recorded. This decreased the monthly mortgage of homes in the U.S. while simultaneously increasing the affordability of homes for homebuyers. As a result, homebuyers flooded the market and were able to pay more than sellers were asking to secure the homes they wanted. However, record-low rates from the Federal Reserve were intended to accommodate Covid-era policies and temporarily stimulate the economy. Thanks to vaccines and the lifting of lockdown restrictions, the economy recovered rapidly. This led to a spike in mortgage interest rates within the first six months of 2022, from 3.86% to 5.78%. This spike decreased what homebuyers could afford monthly, thus reducing offers on homes as well.
Search US Interest Rates Over Time
What does this mean for Millennials?
It is possible that the unusual spike in home prices was temporary and could continue to decrease over time. Unfortunately, it is impossible to predict future trends. Therefore, the best we can do is calculate the affordability of homes with the current home value average of $349,000.
So, how do you calculate the affordability of a house? Banks use a debt-to-income ratio to determine whether or not someone can afford a loan. There are two approaches to go about determining debt-to-income ratios: on the front end and the back end. Front-end ratios are computed by dividing your monthly costs by your gross income. The back end ratio is determined the same way as the front end, but adds all other recurring monthly debt into the equation. For the sake of implication, we will be using the front end ratio and utilizing an online calculator. If you bring in the median household income of $71,500, you can afford a house priced up to $263,341, with a 5.75% interest rate with a down payment of $52,668 and a loan amount of $210,673. This maximum home value falls below the today’s average home value of $349,000. Unfortunately, based on the 28/36 rule, A Millennial making the median income cannot afford the average home in 2022.
However, this does not tell the whole story. Indeed, a Millennial most likely will not be able to afford the average home cost in 2022, however, this does not mean they cannot afford a home. The average of something naturally means that there are data sets both below and above that number. With a budget of $263,000, depending on the location, a Millennial can afford a home valued below the average of $349,000.
For example, the average cost of a home in Mississippi is $166,000 while the average in California is $465,000. The region, state, city, county, and market play a huge factor in the average cost of a house. Additionally, some local grants and programs assist in home buying, which promotes homeownership among different classes of people and makes homeownership more attainable. Therefore, we can potentially conclude that Millennials could easily afford homes within our economy.
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Additional Factors to Consider
Another significant factor exists in student loan debt. Student loan debt is arguably the largest obstacle that Millennials have to overcome to reach financial independence. The average Millennial has over $38,000 in student loan debt. This number factors directly into the debt-to-income ratio of a mortgage applicant, decreasing the chances of being approved for a loan and reducing the amount Millennials qualify for. Interestingly enough, Millennials do not hold the highest amount of student loan debt on average. Gen Xers have an average of $45,000 in student loan debt, which is $7,000 more than Millennials. However, because Gen Xers are likely further along in their careers, they are already earning much more income which cancels out the difference in debt.
In our Society, Can Millennials Afford Houses? Yes or No?
The answer is, “Maybe.” Generally, the “average” Millennial cannot afford homes priced at the national “average” home value. However, there are many other factors such as debt, government assistance, location, and more that determine an individual’s eligibility to afford a home. Millennials are indeed experiencing a much more volatile economy in a condensed amount of time, which makes it difficult to follow in our predecessor’s footsteps and invest wisely or save more aggressively. Ultimately, the eligibility for affording a house lies mainly with one’s financial responsibility, literacy, discipline, and serendipity.